Global construction outlook is bright, Timetric predicts
By STAFF REPORTConstruction Financing Infrastructure P3s Risk Management
Middle East, Africa regions growing fastest
The global construction industry has regained growth momentum, with the pace of expansion accelerating from an annual average of 2.7 per cent a year in 2011-2013 to 3.1 per cent in 2014, according to a latest analysis from Timetric’s Construction Intelligence Center (CIC).
The forecast is for a further uptick to 3.8 per cent in 2015, and then an average annual increase of 3.9 per cent in 2016-2020, the model predicts.
Based on the CIC’s Global 50, a grouping of the 50 largest and most influential markets in the world, the global construction industry is projected to grow from US$7.4 trillion in 2010 to US$8.5 trillion in 2015 and to US$10.3 trillion in 2020, when measured at constant 2010 prices and exchange rates (Real 2010 US$).
“This expansion provides huge opportunities to those investing and operating in the industry as well as those supplying goods and services to it,” says Danny Richards, lead economist at CIC. “However, the expansion is neither uniform across the world nor within regions, and risks and challenges abound.”
Broadly, the construction industries in emerging markets are forecast to continue to grow at a much faster rate than the advanced economies. With reference to the CIC Global 50, emerging markets accounted for more than half of the world’s construction output for the first time ever in 2012 and by 2020 it will have a 56 per cent share.
From 2016-2020, the construction industries in advanced economies combined are forecast to expand by 2.2 per cent a year on average, while emerging markets will record a 5.3 per cent annual expansion during the same period. However, the advanced economies are at least improving, with growth accelerating from just 0.6 per cent a year on average in 2011-2015.
The construction industries in the Middle East and Africa region are predicted to be the fastest growing in 2016-2020, overtaking the Asia-Pacific region, which held the top spot in 2011-2015. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific’s share of the global construction industry will continue to rise, reaching close to 49 per cent in 2020, up from 40 per cent in 2010.
Timetric is a provider of online data, analysis and advisory services on key financial and industry sectors. It provides integrated information services covering risk assessments, forecasts, industry analysis, market intelligence, news and commentary.